NFL Betting Strategy

The NFL is, by far, the most popular sport in the US to bet on. Since sports betting is still relatively new, many people are unsure of how to bet on the NFL and the wagering options available. 

Actually, the three most popular betting markets in the NFL are the moneyline, point spread, and point totals. The money line is a wager on the team that wins the game; the point spread is a bet on a team that will cover the spread, and the point total is a bet on whether the game will end up over or under a certain amount of points. Is this too fast? Let us start from the beginning and try to rule out the best sports betting strategy for the NFL games.

Know the Basics

The NFL game is not your basic football match. It has certain specifics that are crucial to know. It is the top professional football league in the US. The season here lasts 17 weeks with 16 home and 8 away matches per each of the teams. The number of teams equals 32, and the games are carried out weekly. These 32 teams are further split into the National Football Conference and the American Football Conference. Then again, the 16 teams in each conference are split into four divisions:

• North, 
• South, 
• East, 
• and West. 

Therefore, the NFL offers numerous betting opportunities: you can bet on the conference champions or the winners of the four divisions. Most games take place on Sundays; however, you can find games on Mondays and Thursdays. These are the basic details that are crucial to know when wagering on the NFL. Of course, there are other details of this league you need to understand to place winning bets.

Handle Your Bankroll

Managing your bankroll is a common betting tip. The question is, how can you do it? Our suggestion is to divide your wagering bankroll into a predetermined number of units that you can use to place bets. A unit might, for instance, be equivalent to 5% of your overall betting budget. Assuming you have KES 10,000 set aside for your NFL bets, a 5% unit will equal KES 500. It is never a good idea to exceed the unit size on a single wager, regardless of the wager type. You can schedule how many units you are ready to wager per week, and these units will help streamline your bankroll management approach. As a result, you can prepare your game plan for the entire season ahead of time.

Learn to Read Odds and Lines

Betting odds are a tool used to reflect an oddsmaker’s position towards a specific game. These lines also show the amount of money a bettor must risk in order to win a specific amount. Odds do fluctuate a lot before the game. We mentioned earlier that injuries affect the performance of the team; however, injuries have a strong impact on odds and lines as well. Oddsmakers always keep an eye on injury reports, unlike some bettors. Also, if the odds favor one team too much, the lines may be adjusted. Oddsmakers prefer even betting on both sides. Therefore, if 85% of the public betting is on one team, the line will be adjusted to attract more vibe to the team that is receiving only 15% of the action.

You also need to know how to read the lines. If you look at the NFL odds, the date and time of the match will appear on the left, followed by two numbers with the teams adjacent to one of the numbers. This is the rotation number used by sportsbooks to refer to a game without mentioning the team’s name.

Use Stats and Analytical Tools

Many online platforms offer these tools, and not without a reason. It is wise to research the sport and the teams you are betting on before investing your hard-earned funds. With the NFL matches, it is crucial to consider time of possession, turnover margin, and yardage (yards per game and defensive yards allowed). When venturing into the realm of betting, there are numerous factors to consider. You should be disciplined, diligent, and willing to invest the time and effort necessary to all the variables influencing your wagers. That is in case you want to succeed in the long term.

Assess Both Teams and Players

It is important to explore information about teams in general as well as about individual players. Even though two teams may appear to be equal and similar on paper, if one of them has already won the league and the other one is struggling to survive, there is a good chance that the team that seems stronger will be playing on autopilot, while the opposite team will be playing for its life in a desperate attempt not to lose. Additionally, it is crucial to access stats on players of your favorite teams. For example, injuries are more than common during the NFL season. All teams are required to update their injury reports at least three times prior to the game. You can see who does not take part in the team’s daily practice and their status for the Sunday game starting from Thursday. Players who are sidelined for that week’s game are also listed in the injury report. Keep track of this data as it keeps changing on a daily basis before the actual start of the game.

Our tip is also to search for patterns that emerge over the course of a few weeks of the NFL season.

For example, some teams may find it difficult to win when playing away from home, while others are not performing in hot or cold weather conditions. It also makes sense to look into individual matchups as some teams may have a strong record against the team they are facing.

Mind Weather and Location

Fortunately for us here in Tanzania, with so many sunny days each year, we do not have to worry too much about the weather reports unless it is pouring or thunderstorming. Given this fact, most Tanzanian sports bettors overlook the chance that a weather forecast could impact the outcome of a football game. Certain events may even be canceled, rendering a wager void. Keeping an open mind and being aware of how the weather impacts betting will help you increase your winnings. 

Among the four main sports in the US, the NFL has always stood out for its utmost willingness to play all of its games regardless of the weather. Therefore, it is vital to know that ignoring a single weather factor can cause an edge to vanish, resulting in lost opportunities and misguided losses. Three weather factors matter for the course of the game: wind, precipitation, and temperature.

•  Wind is the most important and predictive weather factor. While examining the weather on a slate, start with the average wind speed for an NFL game, which equals seven miles per hour.
• Precipitation, on the other hand, is hard to forecast. Since it can be hard to distinguish between the real impact of precipitation on the game and the cumulative effects of other weather factors that can occur during rainfall or snowfall. 
• The concept of temperature is basic. Usually, if the temperature is within 55-85 degrees Fahrenheit (which is considered perfect for the game), you should not expect any deviations in the players’ performance. If the temperature is out of this range, passing production of the match has chances to decrease.

Consider Home Advantage

In recent years, home teams have not been as successful overall, in part because of poor team performances and shrinking home support. That being said, elite teams still have a tendency to perform at home rather than away. Even though home-team field advantage often affects how NFL games turn out, the advantage is frequently factored into the spread. In some cases, there might be a strong road team, while in other cases, an excellent home team can be underappreciated. Make sure to research the home and away playing patterns of the teams you are interested in rather than attempting to apply a rule of thumb.